What’s the future of ultra-endurance cycling?

It was late January 2024 and I had finally plucked up the courage to register for the Three Peaks Bike Race. This an unsupported bikepacking race from Vienna to Nice (about 2,000km) in July. I clicked the “register” button, but was surprised when I got the message that it was booked out. I haven’t checked the exact number, but there must be around 100 registrations – with half a year to go.

Last week I received a message on Instagram that the 1,500km Berlin-Munich-Berlin was booked out, 100 registrations. Soon after I read that the 250km 5000me Öztaler Radmarathon – whilst not a bikepacking race, but extreme nonetheless – announced that of the maximum 4,000 places, around 21,000 people had registered in 2024. These are challenging bike races, requiring skill, extensive training and dedication – what’s happening?

I can’t claim to be an experienced ultra-endurance rider. I did Berlin-Munich-Berlin in 2022 and loved it, tough as it was. So much so, that I’ve already booked a place in the 2,500km Race Across France. But based on what I’ve seen over the last few years, there has been a big change in extreme bike races – it’s becoming more difficult to get to the starter’s line than the finisher’s line!

Increased demand

What’s happening?

It’s well known that cycling numbers picked up during Covid. In getting out of the house and escaping the mundaneness of quarantine, many people discovered or rediscovered a hobby. Progressing from recreational cycling may lead to racing, however this is not for everyone. Riding longer distances logically leads to bike touring or bikepacking. Simply packing some basics, maybe add a sleeping bag and keep riding for several days.

An organised bikepacking / ultra-endurance race merely formalises this process: offering a destination, maybe a route, a time limit, some limited degree of support, and various passionate fellow travellers.

Bikepacking and ultra-endurance racing (of various lengths) has also gained quite a lot of media attention. Epic videos such as those from GCN or Vegan Cyclist, as well as inspiring stories from riders such as Jenny Tough, Marc Beaumont, Emily Chappell and Sofiane Sehili have made the discipline more accessible. I’m perhaps a typical case – normally stuck in a physically comfortable corporate life, but dreaming of an epic adventure and an opportunity to challenge myself physically and mentally.

I haven’t looked at any statistics, but it’s conceivable that some applicants have eyes bigger than their stomachs, and are forced to abandon the race due to poor preparation or being overwhelmed. That being said, I have also heard enough stories of racers who faced such insurmountable challenges, and, near failure, dug deeper and still finished.

That is to say, many people will register with the promise of adventure or an opportunity to challenge themselves, get themselves to the start line and let the magic happen. It’s open to anyone, which means demand is potentially limitless.

Limited supply

There are a finite number of bike races in any geographic area in a calendar year. The Apidura website lists around 80 “all-road”, gravel, off-road and road races with a distance of 1000km or further in 2024.

In theory, I suppose anyone can organise a bikepacking race. I can’t even begin to imagine the number of hours it takes, but let’s imagine this person has to publish and market an event, plan and test routes, take and process applications, organise and manage sponsors, provide race details to participants, keep them updated, organise and buy starter’s goodies, plan and pay for a starters event, get everyone on the starters line, organise and pay a photographer/videographer, track the racers and provide support, organise and fuel vehicles to manage checkpoints, manage checkpoints (day and night), buy and prepare food and drinks for the checkpoints, help struggling or sick racers, get to the finish line, organise and buy and winners prizes (if any) and finishers goodies, pack up everything, process photos and videos, keep social media buzzing, then take a long and well deserved rest. I’m sure I’ve missed out countless jobs – good race organisation should not be underestimated. Despite sponsorship and participation fees, it’s also unlikely to be a particularly profitable enterprise.

Not only that, even if self-supported, the organisers of bikepacking races need to be careful about how many people they accept on the start line. After all, they bear responsibility for the route and need to make sure the participants are safe. Some races have tried to put filters on who can join, especially on the more extreme races – the most famous is the 1,200km Paris-Brest-Paris which requires evidence of prior 200, 300, 400 and 600km audaxes, and even then this limited the number of participants to a spritely 6,180 in 2023.

Wait – are ultra-endurance races overrated?

It’s probably worth bearing in mind that just because an ultra-endurance race is booked out doesn’t mean that people can’t ride the same route. After all, there have been cycle tourists since the dawn of cycling, covering all sorts of wild distances.

From a personal perspective, I feel that ultra-endurance races create a narrative which offers more than just hopping on a bike for a tour. Last October, I planned to ride 300km a day for 4 days. After about 250km the first day, I was feeling tired and decided that as it was my holiday, I could just take it easy. Much like the difference between your 100km Sunday ride and a 100km race on a Sunday, a race forces you to push your limits.

From that perspective, the competition with other riders, the time pressure to make the next checkpoint in time, and even the moments of camaraderie with other riders make bikepacking races different.

So no, they’re not overrated!

What about the future? How long can this continue?

It’s certainly a good thing that more people are getting into cycling.

Depending on how people enjoy the races over the next few years, and whether people are interested in regularly taking part as opposed to it being a one-time life challenge, the ultra-endurance market may grow over the next few years.

Hopefully market economics will take hold and supply will strive to meet the demand, perhaps we may get double the number of ultra-endurance events in the calendar. These however need to remain high quality to provide good routes and promote rider safety, whilst ensuring the spirit of adventure is kept.

Existing races may introduce participation limits, either on a first-come-first-served basis or via a lottery. Some longer races may introduce participation criteria like Paris-Brest-Paris, to ensure that participants are experienced and/or fit enough. Some races may also succumb to market forces and introduce higher participation fees, either offering a more premium experience or becoming more profit oriented.

There is a real risk that this excludes various participants from bikepacking races in an arbitrary or even an (unintentionally) targeted fashion. Some high-demand races have tried to counter this, such as the Transcontinental Race (TCR), which introduced the Mike Hall bursary for TCRNo8 in 2022. This was designed to promote inclusion and remove financial barriers, and three riders were awarded the bursary in 2022.

As an alternative, races may also try to become more extreme to discourage mass registration, such as increasing the distance or moving away from roads to focus on gravel or mountain-bike races. As an example, Unbound Gravel’s 360mile (500km) XL gravel race (designed to be done in one go) attracted 70 participants in 2023, whereas its shorter 200mile (360km) version had 1154 participants. An unintended consequence may be that such extreme races may attract professionals over amateurs, potentially blocking the participation of hobby riders.

There will be no quick solution (aside from registering as quickly as possible), but this increased interest will certainly spark new markets, including in dedicated bikes, bags, equipment, and even coaching and training courses (such as Turn Cycling (ext)). These products of course already exist, but it’s telling that Decathlon is now rolling out a dedicated range of apparently decent bikepacking equipment, potentially undercutting incumbents such as Apidura and Tailfin.

I know I’m keen to push myself and, provided that Race Across France goes well, I can see myself as a regular participant at ultra-endurance races, perhaps with an odd slower paced bike tour thrown in as well. I suppose I’ll just have to reserve my space early enough in future!

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Thanks for reading, I’d be grateful for any opinions from more seasoned ultra-endurance cyclists!